Lock down — Did India get it wrong? (Covid-19 scam part 2)

As the ongoing seasonal flu outbreak (rechristened as Covid-19) is scaring people to their core with the unpredictability and projected detection rates, very less number of countries have resorted to a complete lock down the way India did it all of a sudden. While the leadership of the country deserves applause for the sheer will power they showcased when presented with a grave situation and the way they have managed to lock up at least 1.2 billion out of 1.3 billion people what we have to think is was this scare for real? Was there a better alternative to this kind of a response? Was the writing on the wall about the misleading numbers?

Lets get into the anatomy of the Indian lock down in the following paragraphs.

India was already going through an economic slow down, mostly due to some global scenarios but magnified by the evident wrong steps taken by the finance ministry in the past 8 months or so. When a scenario of this scale came in front of the country, the decision makers and their advisers had only 2 choices broadly —

1. Let the country run as it is, take the toll the pandemic slaps on it for saving the economy in terms of a short to midterm health care infra crisis paused by the overwhelmed hospitals and their health care staff — if the disease touched the massive scale of cases as the virus proponents, main stream media and people who they control and influence made us believe. Looks like the administration and their advisors have chosen a less riskier way!

2. Let the country be locked down, take the economical hit and pass it onto each and everyone of the 1.3 billion populace in the name of saving their precious lives from what looked like a pandemic. People will react less as it came to saving their lives at the cost of country’s economy and the administration’s image itself.

The first approach leaves the administration and their advisors with the risk of an allegation of choosing to save the nation’s economy at the cost of some people’s lives by letting a spread of a pandemic that WHO declared almost month ago, while the second opinion leaves them with a tag of great sacrificers (remember, the apology talk of the PM to the nation).

So its clear why India entered into a lock down — it was more of a swim or sink situation where a most favorable decision by all accounts was taken. Now lets look at the veracity of the pandemic call itself — please note that this one will be an India specific data while other countries’ data will be used only to substantiate certain claims. A more detailed presentation is also available in the Part -1 of my blog.

Lets take the account of people who flew in and ‘brought the deadly virus from outside’, assuming that India didn’t have any fever cases till the 2nd week of February (Lets not take into account of the fact that India has had 1500 cases of H1N1 in the first 2 months of the year 2020). As per MEA’s own admission around 1 Million people come to India from 2nd week of Feb to the 22nd of March — close to 40 days as per their admission. If we take 4 persons on a flight of 180 seats average fatigued number and calculate, we get ((1,000,000/180) x 4) = 22,000 approx. Ie these many people immigrated should have shown fever symptoms (remember around 15% of all virus detection reports Corona presence and depending on the number of cycles of PCR conducted, this could go higher or lower — that is exactly the flaw in the test). So the NIV test lab conducted higher number of cycles on samples of people flew into the country may be under pressure to ‘detect’ and report some numbers to avoid some later eruptions, with fever symptoms from 2nd or 3rd week of Feb onwards and labelled them as Corona suspects and some of them developed fever as the usual seasonal flu (mostly seasonal or fatigue related) and quarantined them under Covid19 protocol of WHO, which itself was in dark about what to do and were waiting for instructions from China whose outputs are still being questioned (by non main stream media).

So, lets assume 50% of those showing symptoms grow a fever (no matter if most of them may not have any Corona presence) and some breathing difficulties and that number should be 11,000. Then let’s also assume that all these 22,000 manage to spread the fever to 4 each, so that should be 88,000. So the total will be 100,000. But this takes a time of around 3–4 months, by that time, a lot of people either become immune or the season itself subsides when the spread stops. India’s usual flu numbers with complications like pneumonia and respiratory distress per year stand at 851,000 as per https://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/cause-of-death/influenza-pneumonia/by-country/ (The death rates per 100,000 stands at 64, so out of a country of 1.33 Billion, the deaths will be 13,300 x 64 = 851,000). Even if we take this as an exaggerated number with 30% errors associated with any death reporting, there is no denying the fact that yearly there are 500,000 deaths in India arising from any kind of flu with ARDS/pneumonia.

In comparison, the US has had much higher number of travelers immigrating or transiting in the same period through various of its busier international airports — much much higher number than India. Also the US current numbers of 200,000 positive are not all symptomatic, they are testing left-right-centre and as PCR reports, counting the number as asymptomatic. So its evident that while India may have a reported number of cases at 100,000 (which is not even 20% of the total number of flu cases in India through the season), the US may have 400,000–500,000 as it depends on how they test and report and how India does it. US generally has 500,000–600,000 number of hospitalizations based on Influenza. CDC estimates that the burden of illness during the 2018–2019 season included an estimated 35.5 million people getting sick with influenza, 16.5 million people going to a health care provider for their illness, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths from influenza. Lets see if this year’s numbers add up to this or not.

Lets take a look at this link https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1177725.shtml its the last sentence that's of our interest here, which says “An analysis led by Chinese scientists published in The Lancet Public Health in September 2019 found that there were 84,200 to 92,000 flu-related deaths in China each year, accounting for 8.2 percent of all deaths from respiratory diseases.”

Lets also see the numbers presented to the Indian Parliament in 2020 March (till the 1st March) by the health minister of the country.

What is shown are some numbers from India’s H1N1 statistics from 2017–2020 as admitted to the Indian Parliament by the Minister of Health and Family welfare. Nobody cared much about this, because the media and Pharma companies didn’t point the herds to the 28 deaths in 1 month due to h1n1 (influenza) in contrast to the 56 (as of 3rd April 2020) deaths in 1.5 months of Covid-19 (Influenza). There is a very important inference in the above table — an average of 1200–1500 deaths a year for H1N1 (influenza, seasonal flu). After the Covid-19 started to spread, of course H1N1 reports stopped or nobody counts anymore — The writing is on the wall — seasonal flu is being claimed as Covid19!

One may wonder how it can be continually claimed that this or that virus exists and has potential to trigger diseases through contagion. As per ‘Virus Mania’, an important aspect about the change of course in virology is that some time ago, “mainstream virus-science left the road of direct observation of nature, and decided instead to go with so-called indirect “proof” with procedures such as antibody and PCR tests. These methods lead to results which have little to no meaning. Antibody tests just prove the existence of antibodies-and not the virus or particle itself to which the antibody tests react. That means: as long as the virus or cell particle (antigen) has not been precisely defined, no one can say what these antibody tests are reacting to; they are thus “unspecific”. It is no different with PCR (polymerase chain reaction) and all its latest variants, which are used to track down genetic sequences, little genetic snippets, and then replicate them a million­ fold. “A virus with indeterminate characteristics cannot be proven by PCR and cDNA-AFLP any more than it can be determined by a little antibody test. Again, this is because the exact virus determination has not been carried out” as per ‘Virus Mania’.

So, then why are there current numbers reported ‘high’ from many countries? Simple, no one ever counted number of deaths country wise on an hourly basis ever in history, so it looks like there is a huge number now. In fact, if we compare the current deaths in China, Italy, Spain, Germany and the US (also India), we can understand how less these numbers are in comparison to an average flu season deaths. for example, India has above 300,000 TB deaths in a year and around 500,000 deaths by Influenza and pneumonia a year, US has 50,000 deaths a year by influenza and pneumonia, nobody previously shut down an entire country and sat at home or roamed around with masks and sanitizers like all of us were made to do this year. Lets say, at any point of time, there will be an average 5,000 people down with flu and infecting others across a state of India with 50–60 million population in a month (if not in a week), but that never becomes news. The swine flu, or influenza A (H1N1) virus that caused the 2009 global pandemic, had an estimated 151,000–575,000 people causality worldwide from the H1N1 through 2009 Mar -2010 Aug.

There is a lot of business that changes hands behind the so called breaking news and WHO’s declaration of a pandemic. Fevers come and go, but the test kits (PCR or its rapid and real time variants etc) have not been able to detect and extract a separate virus called Covid19 that has spread and killed several people ‘exclusively’ without any pre morbid conditions. Its not about if someone goes out and contribute to the spread — but the actual question is whether such a condition itself exists or not. That’s the reason, as mentioned previously that the total positive cases is a misleading statistics, as the count can be increased easily by setting the RT-PCR test cycles, including all kind of pre morbid cases, even tests done on dead bodies (as done in Italy and Thailand as far as I am aware). So its the death count that one needs to be watchful as the total number of deaths and previous years comparison through the same flu season, which will give us an idea of whats happening

The Covid19 (hence Avian flu and H1N1) arguments would have been right, if a simple math could be proven — If X number of average flu deaths and Y number of Covid19 deaths can add up as X+Y and not (X — Y) + Y. If it is X+Y, it could accepted that there is a presence of a new virus causing Y deaths in addition to the usual X. What is observed in all the countries that are studied— US, Germany, Italy, Spain, China and India — is exactly opposite to this ie: (X — Y) + Y = X.

The WHO and whoever was behind this scam never expected a country like India with 18% of world population will shut down the whole country almost abruptly, ahead of anybody else in this breadth and depth — no matter how much ever people come out various little or emergency reasons, almost 1.1–1.2 Billion are anyway indoors 24x7. In case it spreads as usual, to counter this question, WHO has now come with a new argument (or ‘finding’) — they ‘found out that’ the virus now spreads through Air. Till 26th March they kept telling it only spreads through drop lets and touch and fomites. My question is, if its a Virus, and if it belonged to a family called Virus whose behavior was defined decades ago when they were discovered, why is it that their behavior changing every week? Why has WHO somersaulted at least 4 times in 2 months about the Virus behavior?

It is also possible that this truth may never come out —under the following scenarios

1. The positive cases don’t come down immediately — since its a seasonal fever and there has always been corona viruses in many of us always, the number won’t come down just because an entire country sat home. So this will be attributed to those little number of people who roamed around and went out defying lock down orders and they will be termed as traitors or epidemic spreaders as per law.
2. The number comes down as its a seasonal flu and by mid-end April could be the time usually it comes down, hence by the 15th April India sees a drastic reduction in fever cases and they stop mass testing as they do conduct now. This reduction will then be attributed to the success of the lock down while the fact is the seasonal fever incidences come down usually around some time (whether it is the mid April or not, is not clear) as it might have happened every year —No one will ever be able to prove this as nobody across the world conducted this kind of a detailed study on a weekly incidences or even an exact monthly incidences with Coronavirus in mind (though India had collated monthly data for Polio, Cholera, Pneumonia etc previously by their Central Bureau of Health Intelligence)

However, I would like to present my projection based on some studies that I conducted specific to India data. The death toll in India by Covid19 won’t be above 250–300 by the 14th of April and the cumulative deaths by Covid19 by end of May won’t go past 2700–3000 as these are the numbers in India by the average rate of seasonal flu as well.

The fact of whether the lock down saved India or the nature of seasonal flu itself saved it will not come out in open until India does a thorough study with all the details, for which they have to get past the obsession to do the PCR kit based tests thinking that it is going to test an entire nation and detect a virus whose existence the test kit itself is not going to prove conclusively (see part-1 for details about the flaws in tests using PCR and its variants). Also India should stop looking at the numbers that other countries are throwing up without understanding how they count their bodies — or India should do a proper study of how they report their numbers and decide if that’s a right way for it to adopt considering the different scenarios in both such countries.

So if such low deaths comparable to any normal seasonal flu deaths are to be averted, the question would be then why has there been a country wide shut down — that’s when the never ending debate will begin if the lock down saved Indians or the nature of flu itself!